Hope, C. The $10 trillion value of better information about the transient climate response. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. A 373, 20140429 (2015).
IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C (eds Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.) (WMO, 2018).
Sherwood, S. C. et al. An assessment of Earth’s climate sensitivity using multiple lines of evidence. Rev. Geophys. 58, e2019RG000678 (2020).
Bellouin, N. et al. Bounding global aerosol radiative forcing of climate change. Rev. Geophys. 58, e2019RG000660 (2020).
Forster, P. et al. in Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.) Ch. 7 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2021).
Smith, C. J. et al. Current fossil fuel infrastructure does not yet commit us to 1.5 °C warming. Nat. Commun. 10, 101 (2019).
Mülmenstädt, J. et al. An underestimated negative cloud feedback from cloud lifetime changes. Nat. Clim. Change 11, 508–513 (2021).
Gettelman, A., Lin, L., Medeiros, B. & Olson, J. Climate feedback variance and the interaction of aerosol forcing and feedbacks. J. Clim. 29, 6659–6675 (2016).
Kiehl, J. T. Twentieth century climate model response and climate sensitivity. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L2271 (2007).
Kramer, R. J. et al. Observational evidence of increasing global radiative forcing. Geophys. Res. Lett. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl091585 (2021).
McCoy, I. L. et al. The hemispheric contrast in cloud microphysical properties constrains aerosol forcing. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 117, 18998–19006 (2020).
Watson‐Parris, D. et al. Constraining uncertainty in aerosol direct forcing. Geophys. Res. Lett. 47, e2020GL087141 (2020).
Andreae, M. O., Jones, C. D. & Cox, P. M. Strong present-day aerosol cooling implies a hot future. Nature 435, 1187–1190 (2005).
Stevens, B. Uncertain then, irrelevant now. Nature 503, 47–48 (2013).
Jenkins, S. et al. Quantifying non-CO2 contributions to remaining carbon budgets. npj Clim. Atmos. Sci. 4, 47 (2021).
Peace, A. H. et al. Effect of aerosol radiative forcing uncertainty on projected exceedance year of a 1.5 °C global temperature rise. Environ. Res. Lett. 15, 0940a6 (2020).
O’Neill, B. C. et al. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6. Geosci. Model Dev. 9, 3461–3482 (2016).
Smith, C. J. et al. Energy budget constraints on the time history of aerosol forcing and climate sensitivity. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 126, e2020JD03362 (2021).
Rogelj, J. et al. Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C. Nat. Clim. Change 8, 325–332 (2018).
Schleussner, C.-F. et al. Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 °C and 2 °C. Earth Syst. Dynam. 7, 327–351 (2016).
Stevens, B. Rethinking the lower bound on aerosol radiative forcing. J. Clim. 28, 4794–4819 (2015).
Allen, M. R. et al. Indicate separate contributions of long-lived and short-lived greenhouse gases in emission targets. npj Clim. Atmos. Sci. 5, 5 (2022).
Smith, C. J. et al. FAIR v1.3: a simple emissions-based impulse response and carbon cycle model. Geosci. Model Dev. 11, 2273–2297 (2018).
Smith, C. et al. in Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change (eds Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.) Ch. 7 Supplementary Material, https://www.ipcc.ch/ (2021).
Zhou, C., Zelinka, M. D., Dessler, A. E. & Wang, M. Greater committed warming after accounting for the SST pattern effect. Nat. Clim. Change 11, 132–136 (2021).
Smith, C. J., & Watson-Parris, D. chrisroadmap/ar6-aerosol-uncertainty: aerosol and ECS uncertainty on future warming (v1.0) https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7103015 (2022).
